The 2024 Elections
Welcome back to Politics Explained! With 3 days left until Election Day, GO OUT AND VOTE. This week, we’ll fully focus on final updates on the Presidential, Senate, and House elections. Without further ado, let’s get started!
In the presidential election, polls continue to show a tight race. Neither Trump nor Harris lead by more than 1% in the NYT’s national polls. In swing states, both candidates are even in Pennsylvania and Nevada. Harris is up by less than 1% in Wisconsin and up by 1% in Michigan. Trump is up by 1% or more in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. In other news, at a Trump event last Sunday, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean” among other racist comments. This sparked great backlash with celebrities like Puerto Rican singer Bad Bunny and LeBron James coming out with support for Kamala Harris. Puerto Rican singer and former Trump supporter Nicky Jam also came out retracting his support for Trump. This weekend, both candidates and their running mates are spread across the country speaking at rallies and connecting with the people in this final push before Election Day.
In the Senate elections, key races are in Democrat-held seats in Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and Republican-held seats in Texas and Nebraska. Also important to note is West Virginia’s seat which will most likely flip to Republican as Gov. Jim Justice is favored to take retiring incumbent* Sen. Joe Manchin’s place. In close races in Nevada and Arizona, Democrats lead in polls. Key races are very close as both parties remain optimistic; however, Republicans are more highly favored to gain control of the Senate. In 538’s simulations, Republicans win 90/100 times, while Democrats win 10/100 times.
The race for the House is incredibly close. In the most recent Cook Political Report ratings, 22 races are marked as toss-ups which could dictate who controls the House. Between these 22 races, 10 are currently held by Democrats and 12 are held by Republicans. Republicans have a 220-213 majority over Democrats, so much is up in the air in this final stretch before the election.
*Definition of the Week (incumbent): (of an official or regime) currently holding office.
