Upcoming Debate, Immigration, and the 2024 Election
Welcome back to another week of Politics Explained! If you’re new here, we post concise, nonpartisan weekly blogs on the most important topics in US politics. This week we’ll be discussing the upcoming debate between President Biden and Donald Trump, Biden’s new immigration policy, and something brand new, an opinion article breakdown on predictions for the upcoming election. For more updates throughout the week, checkout our Instagram page @PoliticsExplained1776 and our Twitter page @PoliticsExp1776. Let’s get started!
The first presidential debate of the 2024 election will be held next week, June 27 on CNN. It will be a 90-minute program at 9 PM EST between current President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. failed to qualify for this debate. Simulations run by Oddspedia gave Biden a 64.4% chance to win, including a 50.7% chance that he would tell Trump to “shut up” at some point during the debate. They gave Trump a 9.1% chance that he would announce his Vice President. David Axelrod, former advisor to President Obama emphasized the need for both candidates to “make this debate about themselves, but about the American people, the future and the other guy." Scott Jennings, conservative commentator and writer, says Trump’s biggest risk is being overaggressive and “getting bogged down in things that are not on the minds of the American people.” Trump must stay focused or else he risks giving Biden the win.
This past Tuesday, President Biden implemented a new policy protecting around 500,000 undocumented spouses from deportation. This policy was created for people who have been in the US for over a decade and have built their lives and families here. Although marrying a US citizen is one way towards citizenship, those who immigrated illegally must go back to their home countries to complete the green card process. However, this new policy grants them the ability to stay in the US while they acquire their green card*. As this policy comes two weeks after the asylum crackdown at the U.S.-Mexico border, Biden’s actions continue to try and answer the demands of both Democrats and Republicans on the immigration issue.
Opinion Breakdown:
While polling continues to project an incredibly close rematch between Biden and Trump in the upcoming election, The Washington Post’s Jason Willick outlines Three potential wild cards for a razor-close Biden-Trump election. The first possibility is Trump winning the popular vote, but losing in the electoral college. This is important to note as some signs suggest that the GOP's ability to win political power despite receiving fewer votes in elections is weakening. A Trump loss due to the electoral college may also create more momentum towards a changed system. The second possibility is that Trump wins the presidency while Democrats control the Senate. Although it is most likely that this election will follow the pattern of states voting the same party for senate and presidency, polling has shown a change in this tradition. In a number of states where Trump is winning, Republican Senate candidates are losing. Finally, the third possibility is an electoral college tie that would give the decision of presidency to the House. As this process, empowered by the 12th Amendment, hasn’t been used since 1824, this situation would raise new levels of complexity. The amendment makes it so that each state has one vote, so even if a party has a House majority, they could still lose in breaking the tie.
*Definition of the Week (green card): a permit allowing a foreign national to live and work permanently in the US.
